"First automatic driving cars will be in 2025 ' road ', then have semi-automatic and fully automatic car driving function or global penetration rate reached 12%~13%, a market capitalization of about $ 42 billion. "Recently, the Boston Consulting Group senior partner and Managing Director, global automotive leader Thomas Dauner upon reporter for the China Business Journal said.
In addition, limited according to the Party Secretary, Xu Heyi, Chairman of Beijing Automotive Group, at the Beijing International Motor Show in 2016, baic to try to introduce a new, unmanned vehicle that can be tested by trying to sit. Next, focus Beijing auto new technology Research Institute is one of the intelligent, energy-saving and eco-friendly development three main trends to create smart cars.
But Xu Heyi "propaganda" before long, intelligent network, China Association of automobile manufacturers, China car of the defines, classification and technical architecture, and more discussion about smart cars in the industry to a climax. However, the domestic automotive industry search for smart car, still in its early stages of development, from the general promotion and need the Government to vigorously pursue the promotion and technical maturity. Many automakers also become a common topic.
Initial standards
In fact, around the "driver's burden", including Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, many car manufacturers have long put into research and development and research.
Dong feng, General Manager of Infiniti cars Dere believes that telematics, new energy and drive will be the automotive industry within the next decade, if not longer important issue facing. According to its disclosure, the Infiniti and the parent company Nissan plans to launch automatic driving vehicles to the market in 2020.
But Tesla even earlier than this time, this year in its model s electric sedan equipped with automatic driving function. But in the view of Thomas Dauner, which can only be described as semi-automatic driving a car, although in terms of control, can be controlled by a computer, but are not allowed in the legal field. "The first semi-automatic driving a car is expected to be this year or next year. ”
In fact, domestic brand car on automatic driving technology development has already quietly begun. In addition to Xu Heyi, a great wall Motors has also said publicly that as early as 2012, great wall motor will set up a professional team effort on cars under unmanned intelligent technologies, such as research and development. "Unmanned system developed the current multi-sensor integration technology, the future could replace driver operations. Currently Harvard, H8, H9 and subsequent vehicles have completed the driver assistance (ADAS) stage of development. Expected in 2020, will be introduced to automatic driving of the vehicle on the highway. "Great wall Motors officials told reporters.
"We joint domestic experts on intelligent network joint car defined is, carrying advanced of car sensor, and controller, and implementation device, device, and fusion modern communications and network technology, achieved car and x (people, and car, and road, and background,) intelligent information exchange shared, has complex of environment perception, and intelligent decision, and collaborative control and implementation, function, can achieved security, and comfortable, and energy-saving, and efficient driving, and eventually can alternative people to operation of new car, we called ICV. "China's Auto Industry Association Executive Vice President and Secretary General Dong Yang said.
Dong Yang said China wants 15 years or so to have automatic driving technologies business. But with the industry standards and grading and more help to auto companies in technology development and commercialization of "rules".
Increased market demand
Compared to other forward-looking technology, user expectations for self-driving cars seems to be more direct and more workable. "If Beijing realizes all running cars on the road, ' autopilot ', not so much because of chaos and lines, traffic accidents caused by sudden emergency braking. "Fan Wang said. There are owners that, automatic driving of the car than someone driving a car saves more gasoline consumption, because computer programs can control more economical and rational use of gas fuel injection system. More car owners dreams, owner of the vehicle to the destination can get off, the car will automatically find parking spaces complete the parking ... ... Obviously, safety, environmental protection, efficiency is the user most urgent expectations for self-driving cars.
Actually, in automatically driving field, above user looks forward to of function, in laboratory stage almost 100% achieved, but real road, in all national also need time, because real of automatically driving, is a systems engineering, except car technology itself, also need government regulatory level of further strengthening, especially and city existing of traffic signal system interconnected Exchange, "this not one or two home car enterprise can completed of, need in Government of coordination Xia by multiple different field of enterprise common completed. "Thomas Dauner said. Clearly, the standard-setting in the industry, not only the car industry itself also has the entire transport industry common standards, this standard needs to be introduced as soon as possible.
New business models
"Application of self-driving cars, auto makers, is not simply to allow consumers to replace the more intelligent vehicles, but it will bring a whole new business model. "Thomas Dauner said.
Meanwhile, in the domestic automobile industry experts, the smart car depends on the application of new energy cars, or the popularity of electric cars. Despite a variety of intelligent technologies in the automotive sector and the application of traditional energy with new energy, but most experts believe that relies on sensors, interconnection of intelligent control technology, which is associated with electricity.
"Intelligence is that electronic, electrical and mechanical system compatibility is always an uncoordinated, and sensors and the dynamics of the car is the battery case, integration will be much lower, mechanical systems and electronic systems integration capability for automotive intelligence bottleneck and new sources of popularization and promotion for this release of infinite space. "The automobile industry-renowned commentator Zhang Zhiyong said.
For a lot of products on the Internet at the moment, the hardware itself is not making money or losing money selling, make money by value-added services is not new, Thomas Dauner believes that smart cars of the future are likely to go this way, automobile manufacturers in addition to cars, background data, connectivity services, value-added features not only a new profit growth point, even over vehicle manufacturing profit.
In addition, for now just at the beginning of the "time-sharing leasing" operations are likely to become mainstream in the future, even the existing taxi business alternative. Thomas Dauner case study of New York gave journalists an account in New York, passengers opt for public transportation costs are $ 1 per kilometre, $ 0.72 is subsidized by the Government, private cars per kilometre cost of 1.2 dollars, taxi US $ 2.8, high labor cost is the fact, but when the driverless taxi per kilometre costs can be reduced to us $ 1.8, if two or more persons together, even down to the costs and private flat, I believe more people would make such a choice.
A international investment institutions senior consultant Liu Zhenwei has been in concern intelligent traffic field of development, he think domestic of car production enterprise, "both at home and abroad of car manufacturers are in no driving technology field input has huge of development funds, China of independent brand also hope in this a round of contest Shang not lost to abroad car manufacturers, but except in technology field need effort outside, in future commercial mode of layout aspects, also need now on to planning. The Internet is changing an industry, if only and ignore the autopilot after the commercialization of research and development of automobile technology brings new changes to the automobile industry as a whole, probably coming vehicle before losing the Internet ' voice '. ”
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