Harvest why import?
Structural contradictions, production and demand gap, food prices at home and abroad hang upside down, corn substitutes import surges, a "three-volume alignment increases" new phenomena
China's food, more or less in the end?
For 12 consecutive years, grain output last year reached 1.2429 trillion kg, stabilized at more than 1.2 trillion pounds for 3 consecutive years, while food stocks in China also reached a peak. Nearly synchronized with the production, China's grain imports have continued to increase, by 2015 annual imports of more than 240 billion pounds.
Harvest why import? Deputy Head of Central leading group on rural work, said Chen xiwen, Director of the Office: "China's grain production year after year, but compared with the demand was gap, such as transfers and some soybean varieties of rice, wheat and corn, this requirement must be met by imports. ”
In fact, imported 240 billion kg of grain, soybeans accounted for the big head. The General Administration of customs statistics, 2015 soybean imports reached a record high of 81.69 million tons, up 14.4% from a year earlier.
In addition, some not subject to tariff quota management but you can substitute corn imports increase substantially, exacerbated the trend of growth in food imports. According to the WTO's trade rules, within in our quota, low tariffs on imported food subject to 1%; exceeds the quota tariffs on imports to be implemented 65%. Chen said: "speak now's domestic prices higher than international, and compared to the prices of imported under tariff 1%. Exceeds the quota of imports, due to 65% of the tariff, would be higher than the domestic prices. ”
But the problem is that 7.2 million tons of tariff quota for imports of maize in recent years never runs out, it is not covered by the barley tariff quota management, sorghum, corn, Distiller's grain, corn substitutes such as cassava and cassava flour imports. The General Administration of customs statistics, 2015 1 November, which added several alternatives, roughly equivalent to 52.6 million tons of corn were imported (conversion of Distiller's grains of corn by 1:3), is expected to substitute for maize imports nearly 100 billion pounds for the year, the equivalent of 20% of the national maize production.
Even more crucial is that from 2012-2015, global food prices have fallen 40%-50%, imports within the quota of maize and is not subject to the quota management alternatives to imported duty paid prices are still well below domestic corn. Some products enter the Chinese market, crowding out of domestic maize market space. Hence the food production, inventories, imports, "three volume alignment increases" new phenomenon.
Where is the structure of supply and demand?
Yield is not necessarily needed, production is exactly what requirements must be met; high production cost of agricultural commodities, the lack of international competitiveness
"Three volume alignment increases" new phenomena, both domestic and foreign price upside down, the effect also suggests that China's grain supply and demand structure, there is a clear bias.
Chen said: "the 15 years since entering the new century, significant changes in the production structure of the food. Soybean yields decrease dependence on the international market has more than 80%, while demand for soybeans is our fastest-growing, supply and demand gap is one of the largest varieties. Doubled its corn yield 15. Yield is not necessarily needed, production is exactly what requirements must be met. This is the contradiction of grain supply and demand. ”
During the 2008-2014, expanding the national maize area 24%, 30% an increase in production. In 2012, the corn beyond rice, becoming China's first major food varieties. Reporter learned that, in recent years, farmers in major grain-producing areas in Northeast China to abandon soybeans, grains, freeing arable land turn to corn.
Contradictions or lack of international competitiveness for China's grain and other agricultural commodities, China has in global food prices "Highlands".
Chen said, China's 230 million rural households, the average household has less than 0.5 hectares of cultivated. The decentralization of production, China encountered great difficulties in improving international competitiveness in agriculture. "In recent years, although the growth in food production, but production costs are also rising, pushing up domestic grain prices gradually, resulting in more food into China from the international market. "Analysis of Chen.
But it must be noted, domestic grain prices higher than international, other than the high domestic production costs, other causes should not be neglected.
In recent years, international food prices have fallen sharply. Second, over a period of time the currency strong, which means that dollar-denominated food entering the Chinese market after the price drop. Three the last two or three years the international energy market prices plummeted, and international shipping prices tumbling. United States Mexico arrived in New Orleans in the Gulf port of Huangpu, Guangdong, China grain bulk transport prices, in 2008 is $ 135-138/ton, and now has been reduced to only $ 35/ton.
How to adjust food prices?
Minimum purchase price for wheat and rice continued to implement policies; corn exploring "Supplement part" market prices, farmers a reasonable income from government price subsidies
Cheng Guoqiang, a researcher at State Council Development Research Centre believes that continuous increase in recent years temporary purchase prices and minimum prices distort the market mechanism formed by, has been fully subvert the domestic grain market system and price relationships. "The most prominent of corn, for example, the current temporary storage system will encourage farmers to a variety of maize, and push up corn prices. ”
"Used to think these low risk price State backing, but corn prices will fall so much. "Shandong province daiyue cereal Xue Lina told reporters that two years before maize price at 1.05 Yuan/kg-1.1 Yuan/kg, bid only 0.84 Yuan/kg last year, revenue fell sharply.
"Our problem is not adapted to the needs of the production structure structure, future food pricing, subsidies and storage system and a series of reforms. "Chen introduced, 2014, the State Council of soybean in the Northeast and Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang's cotton and rape of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River for price formation mechanisms and subsidy reform, and achieved remarkable results. Last September, the State Department and cut temporary purchase price of corn in the Northeast and Inner Mongolia, 2014 catty 1.12 Yuan, down from the current 1. "Wheat and rice as food rations, will continue to implement the minimum purchase price policy reforms are basically market price of corn, the price of repair part. Price to be decided by the market, prices are no longer assume the function of subsidies to farmers, price subsidies farmers a reasonable income for the Government. ”
Chen said the food supply system reform to achieve at least four important goals:
One is to gradually reduce tariff import quotas for corn substitutes, is one of the most important measures is to make domestic corn prices return to a similar level with the international market.
Second, new inventory cannot increase, this is the number, but the Government could not use administrative means to limited production, but to live mechanisms.
Three is a live market. "Reasonable price, purchase and sale of corn to diversify, multi-channel distribution, market players are willing to purchase grain, stock would only reduce the pressure down. ”
Four couldn't make farmers too lose. Chen stressed that farmers ' interests are not allowed in any case "ups and downs". From historical perspective, if incorrect agricultural policy, undermines the interests of farmers, can lead to food production continued to decline. "Farmers a reasonable income is maintained in the reform process, is important for ensuring food production and food security valve. ”
Food supply side-how to change?
Transfer structure, and also to maintain the production capacity has increased, jobs must end in your hands
Food supply side reforms, structural adjustment, but food security cannot be relaxed, centred on the consolidation of capacity and upgrading. Chen said, "China must adhere to rely on their own ability to ensure food security, the ' Thirteen-Five ' while still emphasizes the basic supply of grain rations absolutely safe, or to their jobs end. ”
Department of Agriculture crop production management Secretary Zeng Yande said, the next few years, consumer demand for grain and other main agricultural products of the whole society will continue to grow. Meanwhile, agricultural production also faces multiple constraints, such as arable land, water, resources and environment, food will be in a tight balance of supply and demand.
Chen believes that the current international market grain and energy prices at a low level and is not the norm, trade and international markets a year can provide no more than 350 million metric tons (700 billion pounds). "Ensuring food security must be based on the domestic, and effectively improve the competitiveness of China's grain production. ”
Grain structure began to confess. Zeng Yande introduced, the Ministry of agriculture this year will highlight the "stable production, adjusting structure, changing way" focus on plans by 2020 "camber" pay cut of more than 50 million acres of corn. "The ' camber ' area is from the Northeast-North-Southwest-a large area of the Northwest, including in cold area of Northeast China, Northern farming-pastoral area, in Northwest arid area, along the Taihang mountain area and southwest of Rocky desertification area, like the camber on the map. Corn area increased rapidly in recent years in this area, but it's not growing. We had a ' grain-fed ', grain and bean rotation pilot, through various measures such as policy, technology, and guide farmers to adjust the structure. ”
Meanwhile, the Ministry of agriculture will also explore the pilot system for crop rotation, fallow farmland, promote the potato staple food development. Adhere to the "storing food in" "storing food in" speeding up the construction of modern agriculture. Actively guiding and supporting new business development and growth, focus on improving the agricultural socialization service system, increase the scale of production. Perfect industrial chain, promote 123 integration development, upgrading agricultural benefits.
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